A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
